A24Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson is being tipped for Oscars glory for his performance in The Smashing Machine – but there’s a good chance he’ll need to beat the Academy Awards’ endboss.
Johnson is a good actor; you can’t be the most electrifying man in sports entertainment if you don’t know how to play to a crowd, whether you’re a hero, heel, or anyone in between. He’s delivered some amazing performances in Pain & Gain, Southland Tales, and even Fast Five.
By his own admission at the Venice Film Festival, he’s spent a little too long on the pursuit of box office greatness, whether it’s Black Adam (which pretty much killed the old DC universe) or Red One (his “Christmas franchise film” that flopped hard).
The Smashing Machine is different from The Rock’s usual fare. It is an intimate, heartbreaking biopic from Benny Safdie, an accomplished filmmaker. So, will he win an Oscar?
Oscars 2026 could be headlined by The Rock vs Daniel Day-Lewis
A24/Focus FeaturesConsidering the rave response out of Venice (The Smashing Machine has an 84% score on Rotten Tomatoes) and the high-profile, meta nature of Johnson’s role (he’s playing MMA fighter Mark Kerr), it’s incredibly likely he’ll get an Oscar nomination.
GQ’s review writes that the movie is “about coming to accept that you can’t always be the best. Perhaps, on Johnson’s part, therein lies an additional wrinkle of honesty. Funnily enough, it might just lead to his first Oscar.”
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“Johnson gives a performance of immense pathos, intensity and depth – one that looks bound to win him awards recognition,” The Independent also wrote.
Looking ahead, there are five probable nominees for Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars:
- Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
- Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
- Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me From Nowhere
- Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
- Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Chalamet is the most interesting competitor, given that Marty Supreme is directed by Benny’s brother, Josh Safdie. While it’s hard to say without any reactions to the film, he could have an edge next year, especially after his SAG Award speech earlier this year. “I want to be one of the greats. I’m inspired by the greats,” he said.
However, if Day-Lewis is in the lineup, all bets are off. With three Academy Awards (for My Left Foot, There Will Be Blood, and Lincoln), he’s one of the most decorated actors in Oscars history. He’s been nominated six times, so if he gets another nomination, there’s a decent chance he could win again.
“Imagine if Daniel Day-Lewis loses the Best Leading Actor Oscar against Dwayne Johnson,” one user wrote. “What are we all doing when The Rock inevitably gets an Oscar nom over Daniel Day-Lewis?” another asked.
“The Rock winning Best Actor when Daniel Day-Lewis is in the same category would be the funniest thing I’ve ever seen,” a third posted.
Day-Lewis has come out of retirement for Anemone, directed by his son, Ronan (he also co-wrote it). It’s a drama-thriller that “explores the complex and profound ties that exist between brothers, fathers, and sons,” according to the synopsis. If he wins another Oscar, he’d be the second actor in history to win four acting Academy Awards, matching Katharine Hepburn’s record.
The Smashing Machine hits theaters on October 3. See what else is dropping this year with our 2025 movie calendar.